Filed under: Analysis | Tags: China, G20, Gordon Brown, Hu Jintao, London Summit, Obama, Russia
Andrew Schrumm CIGI Research Officer
From the London Summit Media Centre
It’s early morning here in London, and the G20 meetings have just begun. UK Prime Minister Gordon Brown, the eager summit host, is welcoming all the leaders now, in advance of the traditional “family photo”and their working sessions. While the G20 is a fairly new leaders’ grouping, the familiar G8-style of informal interactions (working meals and press briefings) has found its way into the process.
Most significant so far has been the series of bilateral meetings, particularly by US President Barack Obama. As his first major overseas trip, a priviledged few national leaders have had the opportunity to sit down with the president one-on-one. Yesterday, his meetings with both Russian President Dimitri Medvedev and Chinese Presiden Hu Jintao made international headlines – while mainly congenial and a demonstration of good will, these meetings surprisingly engaged in substantive dialogue. With Russia, the US will begin a new conversation on global nuclear disarmament and a broader security agenda. With China, the US is anticipated to launch a renewed dialogue, leading into an official state visit by President Obama to China in late-2009.
Today, we are anticipating the final language on the summit declaration which will outline the G20′s major initiatives to correct the world economy and establish an international financial regulatory framework to avoid future crises. The exact language here must be both cautious and aggressive at the same time; cautious in that leaders will be held to account on their agreements by national groups and international civil society; and agressive in that strong corrective measures are needed to stimulate national economies and bolster international financial institutions.
As posted yesterday, Lord Mark Malloch-Brown (UK’s G20 special envoy) set some clear expectations for the summit declaration, noting that it will avoid setting strict standards on national stimulus programs and will leave climate negotiations to the UNFCCC. Clearly the G20 won’t be able to accomplish everything in one day – as things continue, CIGI and Chatham House will continue to provide commentary and analysis on develops here in London.
Disclaimer: This blog is solely intended to spur discussion, while the opinions expressed are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of CIGI, Chatham House or their respective Boards of Directors.
Filed under: Comment | Tags: China, financial crisis, G20, Gordon Brown, London Summit, Obama
Andrew F. Cooper CIGI Associate Director and Distinguished Fellow
Gregory Chin CIGI Senior Fellow
As the first hosts of the G20 leaders’ meetings, the US and the UK have coordinated the summit agenda, and set a tone for the meetings. The leadership from Prime Minister Gordon Brown and President Barack Obama has, in some ways, yeilded positive results. However, it has arguably come at the expense of a genuine recognition that the world has significantly changed and that the Atlantic condominium is no longer enough, even to set the base for the broader discussions.
A narrow focus on disagreements in response measures to the fast evolving global economic crisis between the Anglo countries and the Continental countries distracts from the critical task of building the new and broader international consensus that is needed at this time for collective crisis management measures and collective stimulus package to emerge from London. Continued overemphasis of trans-Atlantic views and contestation is crowding out ideas and proposals from key emerging actors in the global system.
The take-away message is that the success or failure of the G20 will be determined not just by the details of new re-regulation and stimuli packages. Outstanding issues of institutional architectural reform that allow for effective and legitimate global macro-coordination are also crucial for building the new international governance consensus that is needed for the future. There is much to the done in rebuilding the institutional framework of global governance. The G20 can be an important start for this process. But the very notion of a G20 means that the world is no longer that of 1945 or 1975 – when a narrow band of countries could produce the ideas and architecture that mattered.
The world in 2009 is dramatically different. The traditional powers can no longer dictate to the supplicants. At the same time, the exact ordering in the new international hierarchy is not clear cut, Some countries in the G20 have been included not because of their contribution potential to the system but because of their potential to impair or destabilize the system (think Argentina and Turkey). Even as we have gotten used to talking about a G20 or G8+5, we are seeing signs of the coming of age of a new G5 of emerging powers, not to mention a new G2 of the United States and China.
The G20 London Summit will be remembered for its delivery of results (or lacktherof) and moblization of participating countries, despite their diversity. As the leaders begin to converge in London, this blog intends to trace what is happening inside and around the G20, and the broader context of issues and contestation shaping the core discussions.
Tomorrow we will detail the key challenges that the G20 London Summit faces in terms of brokering new international political consensus, including what we are hearing on the ground in London.
Disclaimer: This blog is solely intended to spur discussion, while the opinions expressed are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of CIGI, Chatham House or their respective Boards of Directors.
Filed under: Comment | Tags: G20, G8, Gordon Brown, IMF, London Summit, Obama
Andrew F. Cooper CIGI Associate Director and Distinguished Fellow
Gregory Chin CIGI Senior Fellow
What will the G20 London Summit be remembered for? Some observers have argued that it will mark a major turning point in global politics and international governance. Yet, so far it has raised more questions than answers, as energies for a new economic consensus appear drained by old divergences. Will the established G7 be able to rally around the Obama-Brown partnership, and reassert its leadership? Will we see the solidification of a more assertive G5 of emerging economies? Will some countries be able to straddle such a divide if it emerges? Are we seeing a new “coming together” of North and South, or will frustrations from London give rise to a new global South?
Notwithstanding the yeoman work put in by the officials from the G20 in the lead up to the London Summit, there is bound to be fallout if the G8 and the emerging powers cannot reach consensus on a sufficient number of the major issues at the London Summit. The handlers will make sure that some successes are recorded, and a coherent communiqué issued.
Certainly, there will be some recognizable agreements on a host of technical issues, ranging from stronger domestic banking regulations to surveillance of cross-border transactions to increased resources for the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the Financial Stability Forum (FSF). While, in declaratory terms, there will be strong commitments made against protectionism and an escalation of initiatives on tax havens. There will also be an announcement of some new pool of money for least developed countries to weather the current economic storm.
What is unclear is whether the policy package coming from London will be enough to claim longer-term success, on a couple of criteria. First, as a global economic crisis committee, is to effectively dig the G20 out of global recession and to prevent others such crises. And second – and this is often lost amidst to technicalities – is to make the G20 the ‘summit of summits’, a new concert in which there is greater equality between the quadrants of the globe.
However, if the deeds do not match the words, and things get worse on the ground in the ‘real’ economy, the G20 could be seen as perpetuating the dire economic situation. Certainly, the honeymoon for Barack Obama would be short-lived, similarly Gordon Brown’s political resurrection. The G20 must strive to find a balance between collectively hammering out sweeping and immediate financial regulations and laying the foundation of a global forum more representative of the economic order of tomorrow.
Disclaimer: This blog is solely intended to spur discussion, while the opinions expressed are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of CIGI, Chatham House or their respective Boards of Directors.
